Arithmetic first. Two Conservative MPs -- Darrel Stinson and Brian Pallister -- were known to be out of town for the vote. Every single Liberal was on hand, even Lawrence O’Brien, summoned from his sick-bed in Newfoundland. With 153 votes combined between the Liberals (minus the Speaker) and the NDP, their newfound allies, there was no way the Conservatives (97, with the two absentees) and the Bloc Quebecois (54) could have defeated the government, even with the help of Chuck Cadman, the independent MP.

But if that’s the case, why didn’t the government call his bluff? Why did it make the concessions it did, agreeing to support a watered-down version of the Bloc amendment? And why did it act as if it were truly concerned it might lose? Two reasons. One, to make Mr. Harper look reckless and power-hungry, willing to play chicken with the country’s future. And two, because it was in its interest to be seen to make a concession, even if it didn’t strictly need to. Remember, the game in a minority parliament is: Who can make themselves seem the most reasonable? Had the Liberals forced a vote on the Throne Speech without amendments, they would almost certainly have won, but at the cost of looking dogmatic and uncooperative. That might well have hurt them in the long run.